There is a certain fun in predicting an industry. It’s a skill that is very easy to dismiss but is actually a key component in speculative careers such as analysts and investors especially if paired with data and macro-trending. Predicting the future is also a good skill to have in designing products since adoption relies on a projection of your market’s collective state of mind. These are why I encourage product designers or founders to develop this skill early on.
The first fearless future prediction exercise is for the Games Industry.
- Xbox One will win the US market by early 2015. There will be a price drop this holiday that will be very aggressive, somewhere in the vicinity of $5o to $90. With a new Halo game, Crackdown, Fable game in tow. I am also predicting Microsoft will be securing a timed exclusive with GTA5 – HD remaster or some Just Dance exclusive.
- Sony will actually have a strong performance with PS4 and Vita. Europe and Japan will be Sony’s market in the generation. But overall they will be at a better position than the previous one.
- Minecraft will be the best-selling game of all time. Its the next Sims, but will not die down due to its evergreen game design and less reliance on expansion packs.
- Disney will buy Nintendo for $X billion in 2015-2016.
- Disney will also buy the Lego group for $XX Billion. Will spawn many Disney-Lego games.
- The next World of Warcraft size hit will be a zombie based MMO.
- Clash of Clans will debut on PC, Mac, Xbox One and PS4 in 2014. Will be fully interoperable with the smartphone game. Will be handled by a 3rd party studio. EA perhaps?
- Bungie’s Destiny will be 2014’s top 3 multi-platform hit. Along with Minecraft and Hearthstone.
- Oculus Rift never goes to critical mass and will only achieve success in specialized industries. Too anti-social and specialized for the mass market.
- There will be an Xbox Surface in late 2015. It will play digital Xbox One and PC games.
- Games aimed at an older audience will grow at a better pace than ever before. The success of Telltale games (Walking Dead, Wolf Among Us), Stanley Parable, Last of Us are the canary in the coal mine. Indie game developers will increasingly find success in will supply the content for this underserved segment.
- Apple will release release the real Apple TV. It will be similar to Amazon’s TV puck + controller. Except done much much better and it comes with 1 ipod Touch-based controller.
That’s it. We will see what happens in a few years! Any prediction of your own? Share a link below.